How Long Will $1 Million Last in Retirement?
A $1 million nest egg lasts about 36 years at a 4% withdrawal ($40,000 a year) earning a 2% return — and never runs out if your return matches or beats your withdrawal rate. The two levers that decide everything are how much you take out and what you earn.
We modelled $1M across every combination of withdrawal rate and return. Withdrawals are a fixed dollar amount (your starting percentage of $1M) taken each year; "Never" means the balance grows faster than you spend it.
Years $1 million lasts
Read down to your withdrawal rate, across to your expected return. Each cell is the year the balance reaches zero.
| Withdrawal rate | 2% return | 4% return | 6% return | 8% return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3% ($30k/yr) | 56 | Never | Never | Never |
| 4% ($40k/yr) | 36 | Never | Never | Never |
| 5% ($50k/yr) | 26 | 42 | Never | Never |
| 6% ($60k/yr) | 21 | 29 | Never | Never |
| 7% ($70k/yr) | 17 | 22 | 34 | Never |
| 8% ($80k/yr) | 15 | 18 | 24 | Never |
What it means
This is the math behind the "4% rule": at a 4% withdrawal the money outlasts a 30-year retirement in every scenario here. A balance "Never" runs out once your return matches your withdrawal rate, because growth replaces what you spend. Push past ~5–6% and you're exposed to running short, especially if markets fall early. Stress-test your own number with the how-long-will-my-savings-last calculator.
How we calculated this
Each year the balance grows at the return, then a fixed withdrawal (your starting percentage of $1,000,000) is subtracted, until it hits zero. Returns are nominal and constant; the model excludes taxes, fees and inflation — so use a real (after-inflation) return to approximate purchasing power, and remember that real-world return sequence matters.
How long will $1 million last in retirement?
About 36 years at a 4% withdrawal ($40,000/year) earning a 2% return. At higher returns it can last indefinitely; at a 6%+ withdrawal with low returns it can run out in roughly 20 years.
What is the 4% rule?
A guideline to withdraw 4% of your starting balance the first year, then adjust for inflation. It is designed so a diversified portfolio lasts at least 30 years — which this matrix supports at typical returns.
How long will $1 million last at a 5% withdrawal?
Roughly 26 years at a 2% return and 42 years at 4%; at a 6% or higher return it effectively never runs out, because growth keeps pace with the $50,000 annual withdrawal.
Does this account for inflation and taxes?
No — the figures use nominal returns and exclude taxes and fees. To gauge real purchasing power, plug in a return net of inflation (for example, 4% instead of 6%).